Markets
Explore and trade on all active prediction markets.
This market resolves to Yes if the US Federal Reserve does not change the interest rates in any of their meetings through December 2026. This is based on expectations from Goldman Sachs that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
This market resolves to Yes if any S&P 500 company receives an 'A' rating in the Climate Action category from the CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project) for the first time in its history, by December 31, 2026. Previously rated companies achieving 'A' ratings again will not count towards this outcome. Verification will be based on official announcements from CDP.
This market resolves to Yes if Dow successfully completes the announced plan to cut approximately 4,500 jobs by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from Dow or credible reports confirming the completion of the job cuts.
This market resolves to Yes if there is official confirmation of a human clinical trial using genetically modified hookworms to deliver medications or antibodies inside the human body by the end of 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if the first measurements from an ultra-precise nuclear atomic clock are published in a reputable scientific journal or official report by December 31, 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a major fast-food chain or frozen french fry manufacturer publicly confirms the use of the microwave frying technique described by Pawan Singh Takhar and team for mass-producing french fries. Confirmation must be reported by a credible news source.
This market resolves to Yes if the price of 1 Bitcoin reaches $100,000 or higher at any point on or before December 31, 2026. The price will be verified using CoinMarketCap's Bitcoin price index.
This market resolves to Yes if the cryptocurrency Pepeto achieves a market capitalization of at least $50 million by December 31, 2026. The market cap will be verified using reliable cryptocurrency market data sources.
This market resolves to Yes if official data at the end of 2026 shows a decrease of more than 20% in Russia's total oil export revenues compared to 2025 figures. Data will be sourced from reputable international economic reports or Russian official statistics.
This market resolves to Yes if Bruce Springsteen's 2026 Tour ranks among the top 5 global tours by revenue according to Billboard's annual year-end report by December 31, 2026. The ranking is based on total revenue generated during the calendar year 2026.
This market resolves to Yes if the US House of Representatives passes a bill focused on reforming financial regulations related to political entities or activities, including campaign finance or lobbying, by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official congressional records and credible news sources.
This market resolves to Yes if the European Commission officially announces a financial penalty against X for violations related to Grok AI's functionalities, including the generation of sexually explicit images, under the Digital Services Act by December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on public announcements or official documents from the European Commission. This market resolves to No if no such fine is announced by the deadline.
This market resolves to Yes if TikTok's new American entity is subject to any major privacy lawsuit filings by December 31, 2026. For the purpose of this market, a major privacy lawsuit is defined as legal action initiated by a government entity or a class action lawsuit seeking $1 million or more in damages related to privacy violations.
This market resolves to Yes if the European Union imposes a financial fine on X specifically for violations related to the deployment or functionalities of Grok AI, including the creation or distribution of sexually explicit images, by December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on official announcements by the European Commission or other EU regulatory bodies.
This market resolves to Yes if there is an official report or announcement that the U.S. federal government completely halts operations due to a disagreement in Congress over immigration policies in 2026. The reference will be a public statement from the White House, Congress, or a major credible news outlet confirming the shutdown status.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in any of their reports by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.
This market resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 index closes at a level above 7,000 on the last trading day of 2026. It uses the official closing value published by the New York Stock Exchange for December 31, 2026. If December 31 is not a trading day, the resolution will use the closing value of the next trading day.
This market resolves to Yes if there is an official settlement or resolution of the lawsuit filed by the sex worker against Netflix and 50 Cent over alleged editing in the Diddy docuseries, publicly announced by December 31, 2026. If the case is dismissed without a settlement, this market resolves to No.
This market resolves to Yes if Apple officially announces a new partnership regarding the AI technology or platform powering Siri by December 31, 2026. Announcements must come from an official Apple press release or a major tech news publication.
This market resolves to Yes if an official announcement is made by the Mexican government or relevant cultural authorities regarding a new national museum exhibition dedicated to the recently discovered Zapotec tomb and its artifacts by December 31, 2026. The exhibition must be officially scheduled or opened to the public by this date.
This market resolves to Yes if SpaceX and xAI publicly announce a completed merger by December 31, 2026. Public announcements must be reported by at least two reputable news sources for confirmation. This market closes on the date specified.
This market resolves to Yes if Phoenix and Tucson successfully implement the 'Secure Water Arizona Program' (SWAP) aimed at sharing water during Colorado River shortages by December 31, 2026. Public announcements or official documents confirming the program's implementation will be used for resolution.
This market resolves to Yes if the People's Bank of China (PBOC) issues special government bonds totaling $29 billion or more by December 31, 2026, specifically for the purpose of recapitalizing insurance companies, as reported by recognized financial news sources. The resolution will be based on announcements or confirmations from the PBOC or reputable financial news outlets such as Bloomberg or Reuters.
This market resolves to Yes if any company outside of China publicly announces the usage or deployment of Alibaba's T-Head Zhenwu 810E AI chip by December 31, 2026. The announcement must come from a reputable source or the company in question.