Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the National Medical Council (NMC) officially recommends a fasting-mimicking diet as a complementary therapy for managing Crohn's disease by August 1, 2026. The recommendation must be communicated through an official NMC publication or press release.

This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is formally nominated as the Republican candidate for the midterm elections by the Republican National Committee or its equivalent by August 1, 2026. The resolution will rely on official announcements from the Republican National Committee or verified major news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 1, 2026, it is publicly reported that the number of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) gym memberships in the USA has increased by more than 10% compared to the same period in 2025. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable fitness industry sources or major publications.

This market resolves to Yes if a publicly verifiable demonstration of a larger prototype quantum battery, capable of charging in under a minute, occurs before or on August 1, 2026. The demonstration must be reported by reputable science news outlets such as Live Science or similar.

This market resolves to Yes if official streaming data confirms that UFC 324 achieved more than 6.5 million streams on Paramount+ by the time public viewership figures are announced. 'Streams' refers to unique viewership counts reported by Paramount+ or trusted media outlets. If no data is made public by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed publication or press release from a reputable institution confirms the development of a significant large-scale application of silk-based materials for use in 6G networks by the closing date.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Labor Department's official July 2026 jobs report, scheduled to be released on August 2, 2026, indicates a national unemployment rate below 3.5%. Resolution will depend solely on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market resolves to Yes if Netflix launches short-form videos from digital publishers, as announced, on its homepage for U.S. customers by August 3, 2026. The market resolves to No if this feature is not implemented by the announced date. Confirmation will be based on an official Netflix announcement or direct user reports of the feature going live.

Automated predictive market for Science sector.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA's Juno mission publishes new findings about cosmic ray origins in a peer-reviewed journal or press release by August 4, 2026. The announcement must clearly state new evidence or significant insights regarding cosmic ray formation relative to the recent news.

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Ariana Grande's album 'Petal' debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart that will be announced by August 5, 2026. 'No' if it is not at No. 1.

This market resolves to Yes if Adam Wharton remains a Crystal Palace player on the first matchday of the 2026/27 Premier League season. Given the club's hope and efforts to retain him, this is a pivotal decision for both the player and the club.

This market resolves to Yes if Bazoumana Toure, Newcastle's newly signed winger, scores at least one goal during Newcastle's opening match of the 2026/27 Premier League season. Official scoring information from the Premier League will be used to verify the outcome. Any own-goals will not count towards this question.

This market resolves to Yes if Olivia Rodrigo's new album reaches the number one position on the Billboard 200 chart within its first week of release, which will be publicly confirmed by Billboard by August 15, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the halted executive order issued by President Donald Trump seeking to create a federal voter list is reinstated or upheld in court by August 15, 2026. The resolution will be based on official announcements or court rulings made public by this date.

This market resolves to Yes if Munetaka Murakami hits at least one home run during the White Sox's next game against the Chicago Cubs, which is part of the ongoing Crosstown Classic series. Murakami recently broke a homerless streak with a two-run homer. The next game date will be announced according to the official MLB schedule.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA or another credible scientific organization publicly confirms that the organic molecules found in Jezero crater by the Perseverance rover are definitive evidence of past life on Mars by August 15, 2026. Statements must be published in a peer-reviewed paper, official announcement, or press release. Speculative findings or evidence requiring further confirmation will not resolve this market to Yes.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants approval to elecoglipron for the treatment of obesity by August 15, 2026. Elecoglipron is AstraZeneca's GLP-1 pill, which has shown promise in clinical trials for weight loss in individuals with and without diabetes.

This market resolves to Yes if official confirmation is publicly announced by NASA, the European Space Agency, or another authoritative body that the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has identified and confirmed the chemical composition of a previously unknown substance on Pluto by August 15, 2026. If no confirmation or announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the proposed federal rule to prevent hospitals from charging markups on discounted drugs for Medicare patients, as announced by the Trump administration in July 2026, is officially enacted by August 15, 2026. Official enactment refers to the formal publication of the rule in the Federal Register or confirmation by the Department of Health and Human Services.

This market resolves to Yes if Microsoft Edge's Google account sign-in feature is fully functional without any major reported issues (e.g., functionality bugs, Google API withdrawal) by August 15, 2026. Reports of such issues must come from credible sources like Microsoft, Google, or reputable tech news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision concerning the legality of federal voter list data collection by August 15, 2026. This resolution will be based on officially published court rulings or announcements in major news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if Fox Corporation officially completes its acquisition of Roku, valued at $22 billion, by August 15, 2026. The resolution will be based on announcements from Fox Corporation, Roku, or credible financial/tech news sources. Completion is defined as the deal closing after receiving all required regulatory and shareholder approvals.

This market resolves to Yes if any major US-based cloud provider (AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud) publicly announces or releases an AI-driven code review tool by August 15, 2026. The announcement must be reported by at least two credible tech news outlets.