Markets

This market resolves to Yes if Medicare officially announces its policy regarding the coverage of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss by August 15, 2026. The resolution will be based on official statements or announcements from Medicare or the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).

This market resolves to Yes if Steven Spielberg or Amblin Entertainment officially announces the lead actors for the upcoming adaptation of 'The Mandela Catalogue' by August 15, 2026. Announcements must come from credible sources such as press releases, Spielberg's official statements, or recognized entertainment media outlets (e.g., Deadline, Variety). Speculative or unofficial reports will not count.

This market resolves to Yes if Fox Corporation officially completes its acquisition of Roku, valued at $22 billion, by August 15, 2026. The resolution will be based on announcements from Fox Corporation, Roku, or credible financial/tech news sources. Completion is defined as the deal closing after receiving all required regulatory and shareholder approvals.

This market resolves to Yes if Amazon announces the implementation of its new warehouse strategy focused on improving human movement efficiency by August 15, 2026. The strategy aims to optimize workforce movements within robotics-enabled fulfillment centers.

This market resolves to Yes if the Australian government or a major recognized scientific organization in Australia publishes an official report acknowledging the contributions of citizen scientists by August 22, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Dentsu Entertainment officially announces its first project developed in partnership with Made By Us Studios on or before August 25, 2026. The announcement must be made through a press release, official statement, or other verifiable source and specify a project resulting from their new partnership.

This market resolves to Yes if Debbie Wasserman Schultz wins the Democratic primary election for Florida's 20th congressional district in the 2026 election cycle. The primary is scheduled for August 25, 2026, and the outcome will be publicly known shortly after all votes are counted and officially announced.

Automated predictive market for Tech sector.

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 30, 2026, there is a publicly announced ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine reported by at least two major international news outlets (e.g., AP News, BBC, Reuters). This includes any temporary or conditional ceasefire agreements covering all or part of the conflict area. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the cumulative global box office gross for 'Jackass: Best and Last' surpasses $150 million by the resolution date. Revenue data will be verified primarily using reports from Box Office Mojo and The Numbers. The market resolves to No if the threshold is not surpassed by the end of August 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if credible third-party reports (e.g., from research firms like Gartner, IDC, or similar sources) confirm that China's GLM-5.2 AI model is listed among the top 5 AI models (based on market share or adoption in commercial applications) by August 31, 2026. The ranking must be explicitly tied to commercial industry usage, as determined by such reports, and not speculative or preliminary data. Resolution criteria require publication of proper rankings or analyses from reliable sources.

This market resolves to Yes if NICE publicly issues a recommendation for the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists as a treatment option for eating disorders (e.g., binge eating disorder, anorexia, bulimia) by August 31, 2026. This includes any instruction or guidance that GLP-1 receptor agonists be considered as part of the treatment for such conditions. If no such recommendation is made by NICE by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially approves a new drug as part of its recently launched initiative to boost domestic clinical trials and speed new drug development by August 31, 2026. Approval must be confirmed through an official FDA announcement.

This market resolves to Yes if the Israeli Health Ministry officially proposes significant new legislative measures targeting smoking and e-cigarette use in Israel by August 31, 2026. 'Significant' refers to measures directly impacting legal smoking age, banning specific products, or introducing substantial regulations. The proposal must be publicly announced by the Health Ministry.

This market resolves to Yes if Israel's Health Ministry announces an official reversal of its decision to ban external AI tools (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude) in government hospital computer networks by August 31, 2026. Official public announcements from the Ministry or authoritative Israeli government releases will be used for resolution. Partial relaxations or modifications of the ban that do not constitute a full reversal will not resolve this market to Yes.

This market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin's price, as reported by Coindesk or CoinMarketCap, reaches or surpasses $69,000 at any time before the market closes on August 31, 2026. The current all-time high for Bitcoin is $68,789 (achieved in November 2021). This question is based on renewed market discussion and speculative sentiment regarding Bitcoin's potential recovery and new highs, as mentioned in recent financial news.

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially approves at least three new drug treatments following its recent leadership change by August 31, 2026. The approval decisions must be publicly announced by this date.

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 31, 2026, MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's super PAC, publicly announces or files Federal Election Commission (FEC) documentation revealing a major spending plan in support of GOP candidates for the upcoming fall elections. A 'major spending plan' is defined as a commitment of at least $50 million, either announced publicly or documented in FEC filings. If no such disclosure is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed paper is published in a top-tier journal (e.g., *Nature*, *Science*, *Astrophysical Journal*) with significant contributions from the RHINE AI model, as cited in the study, by August 31, 2026. The research must pertain to neutron star mergers or the synthesis of heavy elements.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed paper published before or by August 31, 2026, provides direct evidence from James Webb Space Telescope observations that star-driven winds can significantly quench galaxy formation. The paper must be widely acknowledged in reputable scientific communities or press as providing such evidence.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA or a verified agency/research group announces official evidence of ancient microbial life on Mars by August 31, 2026. Such evidence may include, but is not limited to, confirmation of fossilized microbes or other definitive biosignatures discovered by the Perseverance rover or any other Mars missions. The announcement must come via an official press release, peer-reviewed journal, or government briefing.

This market resolves to Yes if the EU announces any additional regulatory penalties or fines imposed on Apple under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) before August 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an EU official source (e.g., European Commission press release or official court ruling) and explicitly relate to the DMA.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA's Artemis II mission confirms the presence of water ice on the Moon by using its lunar reconnaissance equipment, with official confirmation by NASA through their website or press release by August 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the Israeli Health Ministry introduces new legislation regarding smoking or nicotine use by August 31, 2026. The resolution will follow an official announcement or media report confirming the introduction of such legislation.