Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization’s Small Countries Initiative announces new, specific global healthcare workforce policies aimed at addressing staffing shortages or retention by July 31, 2026. The announcement must be public and reported by a reputable news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Commission announces new formal charges or findings against Apple regarding interoperability violations under the scope of the Digital Markets Act (DMA) by July 31, 2026. The announcement must clearly define new allegations beyond the issues raised in the recent July 2026 EU General Court rulings. Public press releases or official statements from the European Commission will determine resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if China's Tianwen-2 spacecraft successfully lands on the quasi-moon Kamo'oalewa and confirms a successful landing attempt by July 31, 2026. The official confirmation must be publicly reported by the Chinese space agency or major science news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the full details of the US-Iran peace deal, as announced by President Trump, are publicly released by July 31, 2026. This includes the official publication of the terms agreed upon by both the US and Iran. Ambiguities or conflicting accounts will not qualify unless the official documents are made available to the public.

This market resolves to Yes if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party wins at least one state-level government leadership position (e.g., Minister-President or equivalent title in Germany) by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as German state election commissions, reputable news organizations, or official announcements. Speculation or unverified claims will not count.

This market resolves to Yes if any credible scientific source reports an experimental verification of a naked singularity by July 31, 2026. Reports must be published in peer-reviewed journals or announced by recognized institutions.

This market resolves to Yes if the film 'Michael' reaches a global box office total of $1 billion or more by July 31, 2026, according to reports from credible sources such as Box Office Mojo or Deadline. It has already surpassed $900 million, making this a potential milestone.

This market resolves to Yes if Circle K announces the completion of the installation of Eversys Enigma Classic self-serve coffee machines in its European stores by July 31, 2026, as part of its investment deal with Löfbergs.

This market resolves to Yes if Luka Vuskovic is officially transferred to Brighton from Tottenham by July 31, 2026. Any official club announcement will be considered for market resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially revokes its authorization for the sale of fruit-flavored e-cigarettes by July 31, 2026, based on publicly accessible FDA statements or actions.

This market resolves to Yes if the punk and post-punk visual art exhibition curated by Philip Hoare reports over 50,000 visitors by the end of July 2026. Official visitor numbers will be sourced from announcements made by the exhibition organizers or reputable news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin as listed on Coinbase or Binance exceeds $90,000 USD at any point before July 31, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC. The final determination will be based on publicly available price data from either of these platforms.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Union officially implements new regulations specifically targeting prediction markets by July 31, 2026. The market will be based on credible reports from major news outlets or official EU announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) permits Russian athletes to compete under their national flag at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games. The decision will be considered final based on an official IOC announcement or confirmation from the relevant governing authority by July 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly confirm the date of their wedding (via an official announcement, credible interview, or social media post) by July 31, 2026. For the market to resolve, the announcement must unambiguously specify the wedding date. Rumors, leaks, or unverified reports do not count as confirmation.

This market resolves to Yes if the 'Michael' movie surpasses the worldwide box office total of 'Bohemian Rhapsody' ($911 million) by July 31, 2026. The market will use information from box office tracking websites and official announcements as sources for resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if the Bonnaroo Festival is officially canceled or postponed in 2026 due to safety concerns, such as security threats or incidents similar to the recent festival shooting in Ohio. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Bonnaroo organizers or authoritative news reports.

This market resolves to Yes if Walker Kessler signs a contract with the Los Angeles Lakers during the 2026 NBA free agency period. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers or reputable sports news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 1, 2026, Apple officially announces or implements a feature that automatically organizes groups of tabs in the Safari browser as part of macOS 27. Verification will be based on Apple's official announcements or release notes.

This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is formally nominated as the Republican candidate for the midterm elections by the Republican National Committee or its equivalent by August 1, 2026. The resolution will rely on official announcements from the Republican National Committee or verified major news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the National Medical Council (NMC) officially recommends a fasting-mimicking diet as a complementary therapy for managing Crohn's disease by August 1, 2026. The recommendation must be communicated through an official NMC publication or press release.

This market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham publicly announces his candidacy for the leadership of the Labour Party by August 1, 2026. This announcement must be reported by major news organizations such as BBC, The Guardian, or Reuters.

This market resolves to Yes if, by August 1, 2026, it is publicly reported that the number of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) gym memberships in the USA has increased by more than 10% compared to the same period in 2025. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable fitness industry sources or major publications.

This market resolves to Yes if a publicly verifiable demonstration of a larger prototype quantum battery, capable of charging in under a minute, occurs before or on August 1, 2026. The demonstration must be reported by reputable science news outlets such as Live Science or similar.