Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the Israeli Health Ministry formally advances any significant legislative measures specifically aimed at reducing smoking rates by July 31, 2026. This includes, but is not limited to, introducing bills or amendments in the Knesset that address cigarette or e-cigarette use.

This market resolves to Yes if Olivia Rodrigo officially announces the artist lineup for her upcoming all-women music festival by July 31, 2026. The announcement must come directly from Olivia Rodrigo, her official social media accounts, or her event organizers and be verifiable through major news outlets. If no announcement is made by the close date, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding is publicly confirmed to have taken place at Madison Square Garden by July 31, 2026. Confirmation must come from a reliable source, such as major news outlets (e.g., CNN, Entertainment Tonight) or official statements from those involved. If no confirmation occurs by that date, the market will resolve to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a commercial demonstration of the non-volatile switching element technology, capable of operating processors 1,000 times faster without additional waste heat, is publicly announced by July 31, 2026. The demonstration must be verified by a reputable source with clear evidence of operation within a commercial setting.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces that the development issues delaying the next-generation spacesuit for the Artemis Moon Mission have been resolved by July 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if UnitedHealthcare reaches a settlement with the Massachusetts government regarding the alleged Medicaid fraud lawsuit by the end of July 31, 2026. Public announcements or legally acknowledged records will be used for resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if China's Tianwen-2 spacecraft successfully lands on the quasi-moon Kamo'oalewa and confirms a successful landing attempt by July 31, 2026. The official confirmation must be publicly reported by the Chinese space agency or major science news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the bill proposed by Sen. Ron Wyden and co-sponsors to cap out-of-pocket costs for traditional Medicare enrollees passes the U.S. Senate on or before July 31, 2026. A 'No' resolution will occur if the bill is explicitly rejected, tabled indefinitely, or no vote occurs by the specified date. Publicly available records or announcements from the Senate will be used to determine the resolution of this market.

This market resolves to Yes if any credible scientific source reports an experimental verification of a naked singularity by July 31, 2026. Reports must be published in peer-reviewed journals or announced by recognized institutions.

This market resolves to Yes if Oleksandr Usyk officially announces a confirmed opponent for his 'last dance' fight, as reported by a credible sports news outlet (e.g., Sky Sports, ESPN, or similar), by July 31, 2026. A press release, promoter announcement, or an official Usyk statement qualifies as confirmation. Rumors or unverified sources will NOT resolve the market.

This market resolves to Yes if a New York Knicks player is featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated before or on July 31, 2026. This can include team-related covers, as long as a player is prominently displayed or featured.

This market resolves to Yes if Luka Vuskovic is officially transferred to Brighton from Tottenham by July 31, 2026. Any official club announcement will be considered for market resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization’s Small Countries Initiative announces new, specific global healthcare workforce policies aimed at addressing staffing shortages or retention by July 31, 2026. The announcement must be public and reported by a reputable news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if any US-based financial institution faces enforcement action under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) due to non-compliance by July 31, 2026. This includes official statements or notices from European regulators indicating an enforcement action against a US institution.

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially revokes its authorization for the sale of fruit-flavored e-cigarettes by July 31, 2026, based on publicly accessible FDA statements or actions.

This market resolves to Yes if the UK government, through an official announcement or publication (e.g., official statements from UK Finance, Select ID, or a government agency such as the Home Office or HM Treasury), explicitly endorses the use of the new app-based digital ID system for identity verification by July 31, 2026. If no such endorsement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if there is a public announcement confirming the renewal of Nicolas Cage's 'Spider-Noir' series for another season or continuation by July 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official source associated with the production or distribution of the series.

This market resolves to Yes if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party wins at least one state-level government leadership position (e.g., Minister-President or equivalent title in Germany) by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as German state election commissions, reputable news organizations, or official announcements. Speculation or unverified claims will not count.

This market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly announce or confirm, via Netflix or official sources, a wedding documentary deal by July 31, 2026. Posts, interviews, or statements from Netflix, Swift, Kelce, or their verified representatives will be considered valid. Rumors or unofficial claims will not suffice.

This market resolves to Yes if Circle K announces the completion of the installation of Eversys Enigma Classic self-serve coffee machines in its European stores by July 31, 2026, as part of its investment deal with Löfbergs.

This market resolves to Yes if HubSpot publicly reports a 20% or greater increase in adoption of their Breeze Customer Agent and Breeze Prospecting Agent tools as a result of implementing outcome-based pricing, by July 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if PUMA's Ultra NITRO™ 7 football boots are worn by a player in an official football match by July 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official match reports or announcements from PUMA or involved football organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if the Laser Interferometer Lunar Antenna (LILA) project reports a successful demonstration of autonomous interferometry by July 31, 2026. The demonstration should be publicly announced by NASA or a related authoritative source.

This market resolves to Yes if Paul McCartney performs a new single on a major television show, such as SNL, The Tonight Show, or a similar platform, by July 31, 2026. The performance must include a song that has not been released prior to June 1, 2026.