Markets

This market resolves to Yes if high school cornerback Hayden Stepp publicly announces his commitment to join the Oregon Ducks' class of 2027 on or before July 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Apple's upcoming Siri AI updates, as announced at WWDC 2026, lead to a significant improvement in user satisfaction as measured by a major tech consumer survey (e.g., J.D. Power, Consumer Reports) by July 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if China's Tianwen-2 spacecraft successfully lands on the quasi-moon Kamo'oalewa and confirms a successful landing attempt by July 31, 2026. The official confirmation must be publicly reported by the Chinese space agency or major science news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Congress approves the Pentagon's request for $80 billion in funding for the Iran war, as publicly announced and recorded in official Congressional records, by July 31, 2026. A 'No' resolution occurs if the request is denied, stalled without vote, or officially withdrawn by the Pentagon by the resolution date.

This market resolves to Yes if Sony Pictures officially announces, via press release or reputable entertainment media, an anime series adaptation of any PlayStation intellectual property by July 31, 2026. Announcements must be verified and attributed to Sony Pictures.

This market resolves to Yes if Louis Prevost, the brother of Pope Leo XIV, is publicly reported to make a second official appearance with Vice President JD Vance by July 31, 2026. The appearance must be reported by at least two reputable news organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if credible reports or official statements confirm that Iran fires on another commercial vessel (civilian cargo or tanker) attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz between June 27, 2026, and July 31, 2026 (inclusive). 'Firing on' includes any missile, rocket, artillery, or gunfire targeting the vessel, regardless of damage inflicted. The resolution will be based on reports from reputable sources such as government agencies, independent monitors, or multiple major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, AP, or similar.

This market resolves to Yes if Ford announces, by July 31, 2026, that the recall issue affecting over 250,000 Focus models due to unexpected engine stalling has been fully resolved and addressed. Verification will be based on an official announcement from Ford or a widely recognized source such as the Associated Press.

This market resolves to Yes if a commercial demonstration of the non-volatile switching element technology, capable of operating processors 1,000 times faster without additional waste heat, is publicly announced by July 31, 2026. The demonstration must be verified by a reputable source with clear evidence of operation within a commercial setting.

This market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization’s Small Countries Initiative announces new, specific global healthcare workforce policies aimed at addressing staffing shortages or retention by July 31, 2026. The announcement must be public and reported by a reputable news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if the Big 12 Conference officially announces disciplinary action against Texas Tech University over the Brendan Sorsby sports gambling controversy by July 31, 2026, as per recent letters from the Texas and Oklahoma attorney generals.

This market resolves to Yes if a legal challenge is filed against the CMS Medicaid work requirement rule by July 31, 2026. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently issued a new rule allowing states to implement work requirements for Medicaid recipients. Legal challenges to such regulations have occurred historically, and this market speculates whether a challenge will be filed regarding this specific rule by the specified date.

This market resolves to Yes if PUMA's Ultra NITRO™ 7 football boots are worn by a player in an official football match by July 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official match reports or announcements from PUMA or involved football organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially revokes its authorization for the sale of fruit-flavored e-cigarettes by July 31, 2026, based on publicly accessible FDA statements or actions.

This market resolves to Yes if by July 31, 2026, a major health organization such as the World Health Organization (WHO) or the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) officially recommends a fasting-mimicking diet as a management strategy for Crohn's disease. Announcements must be from official publications or announcements verified by these organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if Olivia Rodrigo officially announces the artist lineup for her upcoming all-women music festival by July 31, 2026. The announcement must come directly from Olivia Rodrigo, her official social media accounts, or her event organizers and be verifiable through major news outlets. If no announcement is made by the close date, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Commission announces new formal charges or findings against Apple regarding interoperability violations under the scope of the Digital Markets Act (DMA) by July 31, 2026. The announcement must clearly define new allegations beyond the issues raised in the recent July 2026 EU General Court rulings. Public press releases or official statements from the European Commission will determine resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if there is a public announcement confirming the renewal of Nicolas Cage's 'Spider-Noir' series for another season or continuation by July 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official source associated with the production or distribution of the series.

This market resolves to Yes if there are publicly reported and verified accounts of significant bottlenecks or delays in doctor's offices attributed to the new Medicare weight-loss drug program by August 1, 2026. Reliable sources may include news reports from established media or official statements from health organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if the bill proposed by Sen. Ron Wyden and co-sponsors to cap out-of-pocket costs for traditional Medicare enrollees passes the U.S. Senate on or before July 31, 2026. A 'No' resolution will occur if the bill is explicitly rejected, tabled indefinitely, or no vote occurs by the specified date. Publicly available records or announcements from the Senate will be used to determine the resolution of this market.

This market resolves to Yes if the full details of the US-Iran peace deal, as announced by President Trump, are publicly released by July 31, 2026. This includes the official publication of the terms agreed upon by both the US and Iran. Ambiguities or conflicting accounts will not qualify unless the official documents are made available to the public.

This market resolves to Yes if a New York Knicks player is featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated before or on July 31, 2026. This can include team-related covers, as long as a player is prominently displayed or featured.

This market resolves to Yes if the film 'Michael' reaches a global box office total of $1 billion or more by July 31, 2026, according to reports from credible sources such as Box Office Mojo or Deadline. It has already surpassed $900 million, making this a potential milestone.

This market resolves to Yes if at least 20% of Microsoft's Xbox game studios are publicly reported to have closed by July 31, 2026. Reports must be from credible news sources confirming the closure of studios.