Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. government officially announces any new military actions targeting Iran (airstrikes, naval maneuvers, or other offensive operations) by July 20, 2026. Statements from the Department of Defense, White House, or other official government bodies will be used to determine the resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government declares a nationwide state of emergency due to the ongoing heatwave by July 20, 2026. Partial or state-specific emergencies do not count—only a federal, nationwide declaration officially announced by the White House or a relevant federal agency.

Predicting the release window of OpenAI's next major model.

This market resolves to Yes if Stephen Colbert's recent public access program in Michigan is reported to be cancelled by July 25, 2026, according to reliable media sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the Euclid space telescope successfully detects a microlensing event by July 25, 2026. Microlensing events occur when a planet passes in front of a distant star, causing changes in the star's light intensity, which can be observed from Earth. According to recent news, Euclid has captured data from stars that may be involved in future microlensing events.

This market resolves to Yes if, by July 27, 2026, Teladoc Health publicly discloses that its launch of clinical services on Walmart's Better Care Services platform has attracted over 200,000 user sign-ups. The number must be confirmed through a press release or company announcement.

This market resolves to Yes if a clinical trial aimed at modulating the STING pathway as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease is officially registered on a clinical trial database or publicly announced by July 31, 2026. Evidence must be available on platforms such as ClinicalTrials.gov or equivalent.

This market resolves to Yes if Carly Pearce performs at least one intimate concert to celebrate the release of her new album 'Honest Woman' by July 31, 2026. Official confirmation of the concert must come from either Carly Pearce's verified social media accounts, her official website, or a reputable entertainment news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Parliamentary Computer Network completes its significant upgrade by July 31, 2026. Confirmation of project completion must be publicly announced by an official government source or a reputable news outlet by this date.

This market resolves to Yes if a new tornado forecasting technology, highlighted in recent news discussions involving NOAA scientists and improvements since the 1996 movie 'Twister', is publicly showcased in a significant demonstration by July 30, 2026. A significant demonstration must be reported by a credible news source and involve a substantial media presence, showcasing advancements in forecasting tornadoes.

This market resolves to Yes if an official scientific body or journal recognizes or classifies the new 'alien' crystal found in trinitite, resulting from the 1945 nuclear bomb test, by July 31, 2026. This recognition should be published in a peer-reviewed journal or announced by a recognized scientific body.

This market resolves to Yes if Major League Baseball player Mike Trout is officially traded to the Atlanta Braves by the July 31, 2026 MLB trade deadline, as publicly confirmed by reputable sources such as MLB.com or the Braves' official announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if the German government publicly announces the completion of its military rearmament and modernization plan by July 31, 2026. Includes official statements or press releases confirming the rearmament has been fully achieved. News reports or statements from third-party analysts do not count as confirmation.

This market resolves to Yes if Luka Vuskovic is officially transferred to Brighton from Tottenham by July 31, 2026. Any official club announcement will be considered for market resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if Meta publicly announces and releases a premium feature allowing anonymous story viewing on at least one of its platforms (Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp) by July 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from Meta or reliable news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the FDA officially revokes its authorization for the sale of fruit-flavored e-cigarettes by July 31, 2026, based on publicly accessible FDA statements or actions.

This market resolves to Yes if PUMA's Ultra NITRO™ 7 football boots are worn by a player in an official football match by July 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official match reports or announcements from PUMA or involved football organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if NASA publicly announces the discovery of new sources of cosmic rays near Jupiter through its Juno mission by the end of July 31, 2026. The announcement must come from an official NASA source or press release.

This market resolves to Yes if there are publicly reported and verified accounts of significant bottlenecks or delays in doctor's offices attributed to the new Medicare weight-loss drug program by August 1, 2026. Reliable sources may include news reports from established media or official statements from health organizations.

This market resolves to Yes if the full details of the US-Iran peace deal, as announced by President Trump, are publicly released by July 31, 2026. This includes the official publication of the terms agreed upon by both the US and Iran. Ambiguities or conflicting accounts will not qualify unless the official documents are made available to the public.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Senate successfully blocks the Trump administration's proposed $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund before July 31, 2026. The fund is designed to combat perceived government weaponization. A 'block' is defined as a Senate vote or any formal procedural action that prevents the fund from being established by that date.

This market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly announce a date for their wedding by July 31, 2026. The announcement must be reported by a credible news source.