Markets

Will a Democratic candidate with a negative stance on Israel win a major primary by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, a candidate running in a Democratic primary race for a House, Senate, or gubernatorial seat, who has publicly expressed a negative stance on the U.S.-Israel relationship, secures a win. A 'major primary' is defined as any primary for a state with a minimum of five electoral votes or any sitting Democratic incumbent governor or senator. Public expression of a negative stance must be verifiable through reputable news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the global box office earnings of 'KPop Demon Hunters' surpass those of 'Frozen 2' ($1.45 billion) by December 31, 2026, according to Box Office Mojo or a similar reputable source.

This market resolves to Yes if Pepeto's cross chain bridge records a daily transaction volume of at least 500,000 transactions on any day before December 31, 2026. The data will be verified through official statements from Pepeto's team or reputable crypto market analytics sources.

This market resolves to Yes if there is a scientifically verified report by the end of 2026 indicating that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has definitively entered a phase of collapse, characterized by a significant and sustained weakening beyond previously recorded fluctuations.

This market resolves to Yes if the current temporary block by the federal judge on changes to the U.S. vaccine recommendations is overturned, allowing for the new recommendations to take effect before the end of 2026. Official government announcements or court documents will be used as sources for resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) successfully recreates the recently discovered doubly charmed baryon before the end of December 2026, as verified by a published report from CERN or a significant peer-reviewed physics journal.

This market resolves to Yes if Them, under the new ownership of Equalpride, reports or is verified by a reliable source to have surpassed 2 million monthly unique visitors by December 31, 2026. Verification can come from industry analytics reports, a public statement from Equalpride, or coverage by accredited media outlets.

Will XRP reach at least $10 by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the price of XRP reaches or exceeds $10 on any reputable crypto exchange by December 31, 2026. The final price will be considered on a closing basis at the end of the day in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Greenpeace files for bankruptcy in the United States by December 31, 2026, as a result of the $345 million verdict against them in the Dakota Access Pipeline case. Public court records or official statements from Greenpeace or US bankruptcy courts will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if Adani Defence and Aerospace, a subsidiary of the Adani Group, officially begins production at its defence manufacturing unit in Shivpuri, Madhya Pradesh, by December 31, 2026. Official confirmation must come from either Adani Group, government reports, or reputable industry publications. The facility includes missile, composite propellant, and TNT manufacturing complexes. Any delays in project completion or lack of operational confirmation by this date will cause the market to resolve to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the price of gold reaches or exceeds $2,500 per ounce on the international market at any point before December 31, 2026, based on publicly available data such as from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

This market resolves to Yes if Equalpride successfully launches a new event series focused on LGBTQ+ culture under the 'Them' brand by December 31, 2026. The event series must be officially announced and publicly accessible. If no such event series is launched by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if a major video game publisher publicly announces that a new game will feature entirely AI-generated content with no human involvement in its creation by December 31, 2026. The game must be backed by a well-known publisher such as EA, Ubisoft, or Activision, and the announcement must be verified by credible sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the Pixar movie 'Hoppers' receives a nomination for Best Animated Feature at the 2027 Academy Awards by December 2026. The official list of nominations released by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if at least two different US states officially enact regulations capping hospital service prices by December 31, 2026. The market will resolve based on announcements from state governments and confirmed implementation of such regulatory measures.

Will Kenneth Walker III surpass 1,500 rushing yards in the 2026 NFL regular season?

This market resolves to Yes if Kenneth Walker III, playing for the Kansas City Chiefs, accumulates more than 1,500 rushing yards during the 2026 NFL regular season. Official statistics from the NFL will be used to determine the result. The regular season is scheduled to end on January 4, 2027.

Will the Senate Health Committee Chair be Roger Marshall by January 15, 2027?

This market resolves to Yes if Roger Marshall is officially appointed as the Chair of the Senate Health Committee by January 15, 2027, following the 2026 midterm elections. The market will resolve based on an official announcement from the U.S. Senate or a credible news source confirming the chairmanship.

This market resolves to Yes if the total proceeds from Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the United States during the year 2026 exceed $160 billion, as reported by a reliable financial source such as Reuters or Bloomberg. The resolution will be based on cumulative data published by a leading financial news outlet after the end of 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the Buffalo Bills reach the AFC Championship game in the 2026 NFL Playoffs. The event considers the NFL season concluding in early 2027, and the decision will be based on official NFL playoff results.

Will the India-US trade deal result in increased American agricultural exports to India by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if official trade data published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) or equivalent credible sources confirm an increase in American agricultural exports to India compared to 2025 figures, by the end of 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if UnitedHealth Group's 2026 adjusted profit per share is greater than $17.75, as reported in their official earnings release for 2026. The market will resolve one day after the earnings release to ensure accurate reporting and verification.

This market resolves to Yes if General Motors' electric vehicle division reports a profitable quarter (positive net income) by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026. The official financial statements released by GM for Q4 2026 will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if official data released by the recording industry association in early 2027 confirms that vinyl record sales in 2026 exceeded one billion dollars.

This market resolves to Yes if an artist is awarded the Grammy for the newly introduced 'Asian Pop' category at the 2027 Grammy Awards. The Grammy Awards are expected to take place in early 2027, and the winners will be announced during the ceremony.