Markets

Will a new U.S. federal law addressing climate change be enacted by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new federal law specifically addressing climate change is signed into law by the President of the United States by the end of 2026. The law must explicitly target the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or implement measures to combat climate change and cannot simply be an amendment to existing legislation. Reports from reputable sources such as the U.S. Congress or recognized news outlets will be used for verification.

Will Mindy West's leadership result in Murphy USA being ranked in CSP's Top 3 by store count in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Murphy USA is listed among the Top 3 convenience-store chains by store count in CSP's 2026 annual ranking. The outcome will be determined based on Roswell CSP Daily News's official report on the ranking, projected to be published by the end of 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the US Senate successfully passes a bill that permits stablecoins to offer rewards by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official Senate records and public announcements.

This market resolves to Yes if the EPA publishes the final rule repealing the greenhouse gas endangerment finding in the Federal Register by December 31, 2026. The repeal must be officially completed and documented by this date for the market to resolve to Yes. Any announcements or draft rules will not be considered unless officially published.

This market resolves to Yes if Grosvenor's Vista consultancy publicly announces the inclusion of autonomous vehicle consulting services by December 31, 2026. The determination will be based on official press releases, announcements on Grosvenor's website, or verified news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least 10 major universities publicly announce and implement a new economics curriculum influenced by the Rethinking Economics movement, incorporating more pluralistic and ethically conscientious frameworks as described in recent articles. Confirmation will be based on verifiable announcements from the universities or media coverage.

Will the Federation of American Scientists launch a major climate-specific initiative endorsed by at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Federation of American Scientists' new initiative on climate leads to a recognized climate-specific program or policy that is publicly endorsed and implemented by at least three different U.S. state governments by December 31, 2026. Official press releases or announcements from the states or the Federation of American Scientists will be used for verification.

This market resolves to Yes if official publicly released versions of the Epstein Files contain over one million mentions of Donald Trump's name as verified by credible sources by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if, by the end of December 31, 2026, researchers publicly demonstrate an operational organic solar cell utilizing the newly observed ultrafast charge transfer mechanism involving electron 'catapults' in molecular interfaces, as described in the 2026 study on advanced solar materials.

Will Congress pass a resolution to limit presidential war powers on Iran by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a resolution is passed by both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate limiting the U.S. President's war powers specifically regarding military actions against Iran by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Columbus is officially awarded an expansion franchise by the National Women's Soccer League (NWSL) by December 31, 2026, according to an official announcement from the NWSL or Haslam Sports Group.

Will Apple's 'citrus' MacBook Neo become a top 5 bestseller in its segment by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Apple's 'citrus' MacBook Neo is listed as a top 5 bestseller in the 'budget laptops' segment by a major market analytics company or industry report by the end of 2026. Valid sources may include Gartner, IDC, or similar reputable market research firms.

Will Japan's first stem-cell treatment for Parkinson’s disease be commercially available by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the stem-cell treatment for Parkinson’s disease, approved by Japan for manufacturing and sale, becomes commercially available to the public by December 31, 2026. Availability must be verifiable through a reputable announcement by Sumitomo Pharma or a reliable news source.

This market resolves to Yes if official healthcare reports indicate a 20% or higher increase in the number of UK patients opting to pay for certain healthcare services out of pocket compared to baseline numbers from prior years, by December 31, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if Britney Spears releases a new music single, either as a solo artist or as a featured artist, on or before December 31, 2026. The release must be available on major music streaming platforms like Spotify or Apple Music.

This market resolves to Yes if any major scientific journal officially announces the adoption of 'peer replication' as a standard practice for validating research by December 31, 2026. Peer replication refers to the verification of scientific studies through independent reproduction of their experiments, to enhance the reliability of published research.

Will the U.S. Congress pass a new tariff policy by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a new tariff policy is passed by both houses of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the President by December 31, 2026. The policy must specify new tariff structures or rates different from those existing as of February 23, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, President Donald Trump proposes a new tariff plan specifically to Congress, following the Supreme Court's decision to strike down his previous global tariffs. The proposal must be publicly documented and verified through credible news sources.

Will the United States and Iran finalize a new nuclear agreement by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a formal and publicly acknowledged new nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran is signed and announced by December 31, 2026. The agreement must be confirmed by reliable sources such as government announcements or major international news outlets. If no such agreement is reached and announced by the specified date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the European Union officially enacts a new climate adaptation policy, specifically addressing flooding risks, by December 31, 2026. The enactment must be an official policy adopted by the European governing bodies and confirmed through reputable news sources or official EU releases.

This market resolves to Yes if Nuvau Minerals successfully secures $20 million in brokered financing for the Matagami Exploration project by the end of 2026. Confirmation will be based on official announcements from Nuvau Minerals or financial reports indicating the completion of the financing round.

This market resolves to Yes if the total value of mergers and acquisitions in the sports industry exceeds €3 billion by the end of 2026, according to a publicly accessible report from a reputable financial analysis firm such as Oaklins or a similar entity.

This market resolves to Yes if the 2026 Lurie Children's Charity Gaming Convention raises more than $500,000 in total donations. Confirmation will be based on official public financial statements or an official announcement by Lurie Children's Hospital by the end of the event.

This market resolves to Yes if the new television adaptation of Charlotte Brontë's 'Jane Eyre,' starring Aimee Lou Wood, premieres on any platform by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements from the production company, network, or major entertainment news sources.