Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the total value of crypto-backed mortgages (using Bitcoin or USDC as collateral) issued by Better Home & Finance, tied to Fannie Mae-backed mortgages, exceeds $100 million by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official financial reports or statements released by Better Home & Finance or reputable financial news sources.

Will Bank of America's settlement with Epstein accusers be finalized by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Bank of America finalizes a settlement agreement with the Epstein accusers by December 31, 2026. A settlement is considered finalized if it is publicly announced as such and no further steps remain for implementation, such as court approval or additional negotiations. This market resolves to No if the settlement is not finalized by this date or if the negotiations fail entirely.

Will the United Nations impose new sanctions on China due to its Uyghur policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the United Nations implements new sanctions on China that are officially attributed to its treatment of Uyghurs. The determination will be based on credible reports from major international news organizations and official UN announcements.

Will Nebius complete its AI data center in Finland by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Nebius successfully completes the construction of its AI data center in Finland, as planned, by December 31, 2026. The resolution will be based on official announcements from Nebius or reputable news sources confirming its completion.

Will the South African National Space Agency successfully launch a satellite by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the South African National Space Agency (Sansa) officially launches a satellite into orbit by December 31, 2026. Given the recent concerns about the governance and funding challenges facing the agency, this market tests the capability of Sansa to overcome these hurdles.

Will hospital price caps be implemented in at least three U.S. states by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least three U.S. states enact legislation that implements price caps on hospital services. The resolution will be based on official state legislative records confirming the enactment of such caps.

This market resolves to Yes if Jared Isaacman, in his capacity as NASA Administrator, announces a formal collaboration with a European space agency by December 31, 2026. A formal collaboration should be a publicized agreement involving joint missions, projects, or initiatives. Announcements must come from NASA or the European space agency in question to be considered valid.

This market resolves to Yes if any major sports league (such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, or Premier League) announces a policy requiring their finals or championship games to be broadcast on free-to-air television in addition to any paywalled streaming services by the end of 2026. The announcement must come explicitly from the league itself, not from individual broadcasters.

This market resolves to Yes if Tiger Woods participates in any official PGA Tour event from the date of this market's creation until the end of December 31, 2026. All official PGA Tour events qualify. If Tiger Woods does not participate in any such event by the resolution date, this market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if 'Project Hail Mary' generates more than $800 million in global box office revenue by December 31, 2026. Box office data will be confirmed through reliable box office tracking sites like Box Office Mojo.

This market resolves to Yes if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) successfully implements the new regulations concerning Medicare durable medical equipment, prosthetics, orthotics, and supplies (DMEPOS) supplier enrollments, as proposed in the February 2026 *Healthcare Regulatory Check-Up*, by January 1, 2027.

This market resolves to Yes if the authorities officially announce the solving of the 12-tonne KitKat bar theft that occurred in 2026, including identifying the responsible parties, by December 31, 2026. If no official announcement is made by the deadline, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi successfully implements the proposed tax cuts by December 31, 2026. This will be verified by official announcements or publications from the Japanese government confirming the enactment of these tax policies.

This market resolves to Yes if Somoy TV publicly announces the establishment of a dedicated Climate, Environment and Nature Desk before December 31, 2026. The announcement must be verifiable through official channels, such as a press release by Somoy TV, major news publications, or an official statement on Somoy TV's website.

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, Hub Group receives a regulatory fine due to the restatement of their financials for certain quarters of 2025. Evidence will be based on official announcements from regulatory bodies or Hub Group's public filings.

This market resolves to Yes if any tech executive not previously mentioned in well-known publications is publicly reported by a credible news source to have connections with Jeffrey Epstein by the end of December 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if News Corporation publicly announces the completion of an acquisition of a major digital real estate company by December 31, 2026. A major digital real estate company is defined as one with annual revenues exceeding $200 million. The announcement must come from official News Corp communications, such as press releases or financial filings.

This market resolves to Yes if a publicly documented and verifiable prototype of a quantum compass utilizing phonon lasers, as described by researchers at the University of Rochester and Rochester Institute of Technology, is demonstrated by December 31, 2026. The demonstration must be covered by reputable science or technology news outlets, and details should be accessible to the public.

Will Instagram stop referencing PG-13 ratings in posts by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Instagram completely stops using the PG-13 rating reference in its posts, as per their agreement with the Motion Picture Association, by December 31, 2026. The decision will be based on an official statement from Meta or confirmation from a reliable media source.

This market resolves to Yes if Oracle publicly announces a strategic partnership specifically centered around AI development or infrastructure with a tech firm based in a Middle Eastern country by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made through a credible and verifiable source such as Oracle's press release or a reputable news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if HBO officially announces a new season of 'The Comeback' featuring Lisa Kudrow by December 31, 2026. The announcement must be made through an official press release, HBO's website, or a verified social media account.

Will Apple's MacBook Pro feature a two-stack tandem OLED display by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if Apple officially releases a MacBook Pro model with a two-stack tandem OLED display before December 31, 2026. This confirmation must come directly from Apple through a press release, official product announcement, or detailed product specifications on Apple's official website.

This market resolves to Yes if a cruise ship is reported stranded due to ice conditions in any oceanic region worldwide by the end of 2026. The source of the report must be a reputable news outlet with international reach.

This market resolves to Yes if a 100-year flood event, as defined by hydrological standards, occurs in Southern Africa in 2026 and is linked to climate change factors. Verification will be based on reports from reputable sources, such as the World Meteorological Organization or peer-reviewed scientific studies.