Markets

This market resolves to Yes if the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts initiates a closure of two consecutive years for reconstruction as announced by President Trump, by September 30, 2026. Official announcements or confirmations from the Kennedy Center or the U.S. government will serve as the basis for resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if a federal cryptocurrency market structure bill is passed by both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives and signed into law by the President by September 30, 2026. The bill must specifically address the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market.

This market resolves to Yes if Naoya Inoue wins his next super-bantamweight championship title defense match in 2026, after the May victory over Junto Nakatani. The match outcome will be determined by an official result from the sanctioning boxing body or credible sports news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if a significant public policy change (federal or state law) aimed at protecting bees and addressing factors such as pesticide use or habitat destruction is enacted in the United States by September 30, 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if the Clarity Act, a significant piece of legislation aimed at establishing federal rules for digital assets, is signed into law by September 30, 2026. The Clarity Act must be officially enacted as law by this date, and confirmation must be verifiable through reliable sources such as government publications or major news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate cut any time before or during Q3 2026. The official announcement must be reported by a credible financial news outlet.

This market resolves to Yes if Deckers announces or confirms, through a press release or official financial statement, that its Hoka brand is present in over 50% more athletic specialty stores in the United States by the end of Q3 2026 compared to its distribution as of Q1 2026.

This market resolves to Yes if IDEAYA Biosciences publicly releases the topline results of the Phase 2/3 OptimUM-02 trial for HLA-A2*-negative metastatic uveal melanoma by September 30, 2026. The announcement must be verifiable through a public or press release from IDEAYA Biosciences or a reputable news source. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, this market will resolve to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the Endocrine Society publicly announces, by September 2026, that hormone therapy is recommended over non-hormonal treatments (including fezolinetant) for menopause based on official guidelines or recommendations. The announcement must clearly state preference and be available on the Endocrine Society's official communication channels.

This market resolves to Yes if a formal trade agreement between the United States and China is publicly confirmed by both countries before or on September 30, 2026. The agreement must involve a significant change or continuation in tariff policies and trade relations, as documented by reputable sources.

This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump or a Trump-affiliated organization officially announces the launch of a new cryptocurrency token on or before September 30, 2026. To qualify, the announcement must be made through an official Trump Organization communication channel (e.g., press release, social media, or official website) or in a publicly available financial disclosure. The token must be distinct from any pre-existing tokens associated with Trump or his businesses, such as $TRUMP. External independent reporting is not sufficient unless corroborated by official Trump Organization communication.

This market resolves to Yes if Nvidia officially finalizes a $30 billion investment in OpenAI by September 30, 2026. Official confirmation must come from credible sources such as company press releases, major news outlets like Reuters, Bloomberg, or CNBC. If the investment is not finalized by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if Pepeto is listed on any of the top 5 cryptocurrency exchanges by September 30, 2026. The top 5 exchanges are determined by trading volume according to CoinMarketCap or a similar reputable source.

This market resolves to Yes if the Pharos Network publicly announces the successful launch of its mainnet along with the integration of TopNod's self-custodial infrastructure on or before September 30, 2026. Any official communication from the Pharos Network or TopNod confirming the mainnet launch completion will serve as the basis for resolution. Reports from credible crypto news outlets or official press releases will be considered as valid sources for resolution.

This market resolves to Yes if the iPhone 18 Pro, announced by Apple in 2026, includes a redesign of the Dynamic Island display feature. The resolution will be based on official announcements from Apple or verified visual evidence of the iPhone 18 Pro design as presented during its launch event or via credible reports.

This market resolves to Yes if the price of Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $80,000 on any official cryptocurrency exchange by October 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC. The price verification will be based on reputable sources like CoinMarketCap or Binance pricing data. If the price does not reach or exceed $80,000 by this date, the market resolves to No.

This market resolves to Yes if the US Congress formally proposes a national framework to regulate artificial intelligence by September 30, 2026. The proposal must be an official piece of legislation specifically addressing AI regulation, announced by either the House of Representatives or the Senate.

This market resolves to Yes if Oakland Athletics player Nick Kurtz achieves an on-base streak greater than 48 games during the 2026 Major League Baseball season. The resolution is based on official MLB statistics.

This market resolves to Yes if Universal Health Services successfully completes the acquisition of the virtual behavioral healthcare company Talkspace by October 1, 2026, as announced in the news. The resolution will be based on official announcements confirming the acquisition’s completion.

This market resolves to Yes if the Boston Red Sox finish with a higher position than the New York Yankees in the American League East standings at the end of the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. If the Red Sox finish in the same position or below the Yankees, the market resolves to No. Official MLB standings will be used to determine the outcome.

This market resolves to Yes if Blake Lively reaches a settlement in her lawsuit against WME regarding the alleged retaliatory campaign by October 1, 2026. A Yes resolution will be confirmed if there are credible public reports or statements from either party indicating a settlement agreement.

This market resolves to Yes if the L.A. Metro Monthly Safety Tracker, launched to provide safety data across the Metro system, reports a 10% or greater decrease in incidents, compared to the March 2026 data, by its September 2026 report.

This market resolves to Yes if the minimum extent of Arctic sea ice in September 2026, as reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), is less than 4 million square kilometers. NSIDC typically publishes this data in early October.

This market resolves to Yes if the Cleveland Browns win at least five of their first six regular-season games in the 2026 NFL season. The results will be based on the official outcomes of these games as recorded by the NFL.