Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Office for National Statistics indicates an inflation rate above 2.5% for any month between July and December 2026. Inflation rate is measured in terms of year-over-year percentage change. Official statistics on the UK government's website will be used for resolution.

Will the U.S. government ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026, the U.S. government officially enacts legislation banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes. News reports and official government announcements will be used to resolve this market.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, at least 10 major universities publicly announce and implement a new economics curriculum influenced by the Rethinking Economics movement, incorporating more pluralistic and ethically conscientious frameworks as described in recent articles. Confirmation will be based on verifiable announcements from the universities or media coverage.

This market resolves to Yes if any major university announces a new economics curriculum that explicitly emphasizes a pluralist approach, incorporating multiple economic theories, increased ethical considerations, historical perspectives, and applicability to real-world issues by December 31, 2026. Valid announcements must be reported by a reputable news source or official university communication.

Will the U.S. GDP growth rate exceed 3.0% in 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. GDP growth rate for the year 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exceeds 3.0%. The resolution will occur following the official release of the 2026 annual GDP report, typically published in Q1 of the following year. Data from other sources will not be used for resolution.

Will the Bank of Japan raise interest rates by at least 0.25% by July 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the Bank of Japan announces an interest rate hike of at least 0.25% from its current level by July 31, 2026. The source for confirmation will be an official announcement from the Bank of Japan or reliable financial news outlets.

This market resolves to Yes if the price of gold reaches or exceeds $2,500 per ounce on the international market at any point before December 31, 2026, based on publicly available data such as from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

Will Australia enter a recession by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in any of their reports by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'.