Will quantum computers break RSA-2048 by 2027?

Will Microsoft's new glass data storage method be publicly demonstrated by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if Microsoft publicly demonstrates its glass data storage technology, as described in the TweakTown article, by December 31, 2026. A public demonstration must be confirmed by a credible news source or official Microsoft announcement. The demonstration should showcase the technology's capability to store data on borosilicate glass.

This market resolves to Yes if by March 31, 2027, there is documented evidence of Edison’s revived nickel-iron battery being used in at least one commercial application, as reported by reliable technology or energy industry sources.

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, human brain cells on a chip, similar to those developed by Cortical Labs, can play the game Doom with performance metrics (e.g., completion time, accuracy, strategic decision-making) that are comparable to those of average human gamers, as determined by a verified and publicly available demonstration or study.

Will OpenAI release its ChatGPT smart speaker with a camera by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if OpenAI officially releases a smart speaker device that includes a camera capable of recognizing objects and offering facial recognition by December 31, 2026. Official announcements from OpenAI or verifiable product listings will be used to confirm the release.

Will India produce its first domestically designed semiconductor chip by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if India successfully produces and publicly announces the completion of its first domestically designed semiconductor chip by December 31, 2026. The chip must be entirely designed and fabricated within India as part of its electronics manufacturing initiative.

This market resolves to Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study confirms by December 31, 2027, that liquid crystal monomers (LCMs), found in e-waste, have gene-altering effects on humans. Reports or preliminary results are insufficient; the study must be published in a peer-reviewed journal and directly link LCMs to changes in human gene activity.